The End of Growth: Adapting to Our New Economic Reality Kindle Edition

Heinberg has set himself an ambitious task: to convince us that our myth of endless economic growth is no longer tenable. The core of his argument is that 1) the price of extraction for energy and raw materials is steadily rising, which means that we are reaching a natural limit that nothing can change - not innovation, not substitution, etc. 2) Environmental stresses, from pollution and exhaustion of natural aquifers to global warming, are already reaching their limits. 3) We have tried to make up for lower growth by increasing our debt through an ever expanding array of questionable financial instruments. Once he has made this case, he goes on to sketch potential ways to adapt.While there is a lot of truth to his analysis, he does not adequately address a 4th factor: that developed countries have thoroughly absorbed a number of basic inventions - the internal combustion engine, electrification, information technologies, etc. - and so have less capacity and need to grow. If for no other reason, this explains both why the US, Europe, and Japan are experiencing lower GNP growth rates (their consumers are sated on certain basic products and their infrastructure is fully developed) and why many industrializing countries, such as China and India, continue to grow at astonishing levels: these latter are modernizing their infrastructure while their consumers are hungry and eager for new products. To be fair, Heinberg briefly considers this, but he fails to develop it to the extent that is necessary to understand the modern economy.Much of the book is a kind of basic primer on economics, e.g. supply and demand, how banks work and money functions. The explanations are pretty clear, if elementary. I believe the audience he was reaching for was about that of the high school graduate headed for college. Though I found these sections pretty pedestrian, they are unquestionably good background for the uninitiated.Perhaps it is an impossible task, but I was disappointed in his prescriptions. They were vague and speculative. He sees a future where we must get rid of our current economic system, not just that of global specialization, but our expectation that we will continue to improve our lifestyles by increasing consumption forever. While I agree that we are headed for some kind of fundamental reckoning, perhaps a cataclysmic implosion, the scenarios that Heinberg concentrates on the development of local cooperatives, more modest lifestyles in a "gift economy" and the like. In reality, it is likely to be geopolitical and will wreak unimaginable havoc in wars, famine, and religious fanaticism.This is a very worthwhile read. If somewhat outdated over the last decade, the concepts are solid and essential. Recommended.

I was fortunate enough to acquire this book after hearing Heinberg speak. Quite simply, this is a paradigm shifting book.If things you hear create a sense of dissonance for you--like seeing a dead in the water economy and a president and congress who keep telling you how things are getting better. Or watching people you know go through bankruptcy while bankers get record bonuses. Or simply that empty feeling you get when you hear politicians and businessmen alike talk about getting America "back to where we were" and you think, "Really?", then this book is for you.Heinberg painstakingly lays out the case for "the end of growth". He acknowledges the policy errors that compounded it but simply points out that we are past the point of peak oil, peak minerals and our environment is maxed out. We have to live with a reality based construct of what we have.Now having read the book you are forever struck by the fundamental error in thinking exhibited by virtually all of the policy creating world (with some exceptions). This book deepened my despair at America's failure of leadership at the recent Environmental conference in Durban.But Heinberg makes an argument for the fact that a less-consumption oriented culture can still be a very happy, more locally based culture.Not unimportantly the book fundamentally helps you see where you want to go next in your own life. It helps you plan for your real future (though I have no desire to paint it as a handbook for the future) in a reality based way.Paradigm shifting is not an entirely comfortable process. It was uncomfortable to read this book though I was already familiar with some but not all of the main ideas. But it is well worth reading.

I enjoyed reading this book. I really think the author is on to something here, and his hypotheses and conclusions cannot be easily dismissed. He gives several major reasons why economic growth in most of the world will slow and halt in coming years. Some of his reasons I am a bit skeptical of - for example, I tend to think governments of the world will find a way to work out their debt problems - but there is one overriding factor which will pull the plug on growth if unchecked, and the author's treatment of this factor is, in my opinion, the strongest feature of the book. This is, of course, the escalating price of energy, especially oil. As the author himself says, "No energy, no economy". The escalating price of oil - especially gas for cars and planes - will (and already has) put a major block on the ability of modern economies to flourish (not immediately, of course, but slowly and inexorably), especially without a viable alternative on the horizon. I have seen this in stark fashion in my own geographic area, where I have seen the price of gas rise 50 cents a gallon in just the last few weeks. It doesn't take a lot of deep thinking to realize that that's money that comes out of our pockets that can't be spent in other areas of the economy. Things wouldn't be so bad if there, in fact, a viable energy substitute which would become relatively feasible from a $ standpoint as the cost of oil rises farther. However, the author does a good job explaining why fossil fuels have (and had) uniquely favorable characteristics that are unlikely to be easily replicated by anything else on the horizon.

World civilization will not continue on the energy intensive path it is on today. Peak oil is here and the world economy cannot growth any longer. Be prepared! Read and share this important book. Get on the Post Carbon website and get informed.

This book is a real eye-opener and shows that the common assumption that we can continue to grow the economy at 2% to 3% per year is invalid.In fact it is complete nonsense.We live on a planet of limited reserves and even worse, they are being consumed fast. Not only can we not grow, we are reaching the point where contraction will be forced upon us because we'll have run out of essential commodities or they will become so expensive to mine, we can't afford them.To be honest, in some ways, the message of the book is too overwhelming as it ties together so many different strands of our everyday lives and shows that even if we dodge one bullet, there are a succession of others waiting to get us.Because of this, you might find it helpful to read  Life After Growth: How the global economy really works - and why 200 years of growth are over  first. This does a great job of explaining that we live in two different economies that should run parallel to each other - a money economy and an energy economy. Unfortunately they are diverging fast and that means a sharp shock downwards in prosperity.My only criticism of these books are that they are big on problems, short on answers. To be fair, we must all understand the problem before we will accept the political and economic consequences of the viable solutions.It's easy to ignore the messages of these books because we don't want the outcomes to be true.I don't want it to be cold and wet tomorrow but I'll go out prepared with a thick coat and an umbrella just in case.Anything positive and helpful we do in advance of being forced to react to the crises will help.Read this book. It's time to be very worried about the future.About my book reviews - I aim to be a tough reviewer because the main cost of a book is not the money to buy it but the time needed to read it and absorb the key messages. 5 stars means that I think that overall it has some vital messages in it. Life After Growth: How the global economy really works - and why 200 years of growth are over

The insanity and immorality of the contemporary economic system, at least since Reagan/Thatcher if not long before, felt like The Emperor's New Clothes to me before i read this book. It seemed that despite most folk I discussed it with could also see little sense it, there was much shoulder-shrugging and hand-washing and a belief that it was all too complicated for ordinary people. In the nineties idealism capitulated to the 'spin' politics of so-called neo-liberalism, and whilst we decry the oppression of dictatorial regimes, we don't notice that we are similarly powerless to control our leaders and their ultra-rich sponsors. This book describes in plain English, without sensationalism or scare-tactics, the truth of the world's situation - and very realistic options for surviving any of the possible futures. Sometimes it's hard to cling to faith in the 'groundswell of public opinion', but it did bring down the Berlin Wall, so who knows? I like to think that, as described, the only hope for the future of our planet is, effectively, the kind of anarchism that serious thinkers described long ago. Far from the only book on the subject, as Richard Heinberg himself often reminds us, I would describe it as essential.

Essential reading for anyone left in the anglo saxon world who thinks we might be on the wrong path or that there may be something else to life other than making money and consuming stuff.

Good text

Interesting and thought provoking. It ties in well with the changes we have to make when unemployment becomes the norm as machines take more and more jobs once done by humans.

Economics is not my strong point but Richard Heinberg has helped me make considerable progress in understanding how screwed up our economic system is and some of the things we can do to change it or how we will need to adapt in order to survive it.

This is a very economically authoritative book which convincingly argues a profound environmentalist, paradigm changing point. The author is a key member of the 'Post Carbon Institute' and in this book he explains why the fundamental economic truth of our time is that we are travelling beyond the period where cheap carbon based fossil fuels can foster perpetual economic growth. The arguments in this book could also be perceived as opening up a third side in the government debt verses austerity debate. Keynesian economists, such as Paul Krugman, may have to recognise that they now have to engage on two fronts, with the unlikely pairing of right wing conservatives, and now these green type groups, both pitted against them. Although in agreement with many of the anti free markets views of Krugman and others regarding the causes of the recession, Heinberg characterises government stimulus as "The Bridge to Nowhere", in that energy and non renewable resource scarcity will prevent a return to long term economic growth."The Keynesians still see the world through the lens of the Great Depression. During the 1930s, industrialised countries were in the early stages of their shift from an agrarian, coal-based, rural economy to an electrified, oil-based, urban economy--a shift that required enormous infrastructure investments (in new highways, airports, dams, and power lines) that would ultimately pay off handsomely for a nation on the verge of realising a consumer utopia. All that was needed to initiate the building of that infrastructure was credit--grease for the wheels of commerce. Government got those wheels rolling by taking on debt, with private companies increasingly taking the lead after World War II. The expansion that occurred from the 1950s through 2000, as that infrastructure was built and put to use, easily justified the government pump-priming that initiated the process. Future payments of interest on the government debt could be ensured through growth of the tax base. Now its different. . . . both the U.S. and the world has a whole have passed a fundamental crossroads characterised by increasing scarcity of energy and minerals. Because of this, strategies of growth that worked reliably in the mid-to-late 20th century-via various forms of business and technological development-have reached a point of diminishing returns. Thus the Keynesian spending bridge today leads nowhere. . . . the Keynesian remedy does not cure the ailment but merely extends the suffering (while increasing government debt to truly toxic levels) . . . There is no "silver bullet," no magic solution that will turn back the clock to an era of abundant resources and easy growth. For now, all that governments can do is buy time through further deficit spending- ideally, using that time to build infrastructure that will continue to function in the coming era of reduced flows of energy and resources." p100-102The early parts of the book present a background critique of how mainstream economics has omitted to value natures finite capital and non renewable resources. Then Heinberg is obliged to detail the well documented flaws and extravagances which led up to the credit crunch / recession. He seems to recognise that many of these ideas, though essential to his narrative, are already familiar to us, and therefore trots through them nimbly, while of course placing extra emphasis on energy and resource issues. One quality of this book, which adds to its already authoritative feel, is that many good data sources and graphs of the sub-prime crisis / debt / government stimulus are provided.The mid part presents the data and discusses the trends regarding the core issues of finite cheap energy and non-renewable resources. Then the various contemporary arguments which down play these constraining factors are dealt with. Some frightening statistics regarding China's growing energy and resource consumption are presented, which although not proving that net world economic growth is ending, do illustrate that economic growth for the rest of us will probably get harder.One small gripe I have is that in a section titled "Currency Wars", Heinberg includes a citation which points out: " It's inconsistent for the Americans to accuse the Chinese of manipulating exchange rates and then to artificially depress the dollar exchange rate by printing money" p207. But surely it is a question of degree? The final conclusion as to who is the biggest offender must hinge on whose currency is actually the most under-valued, and China still easily comes top on this measure.The latter part of the book is more recognisably a 'green' read. There is a comprehensive list of stances and suggestions which include many that most would regard as sensible, and a few that some would regard as perhaps idealistic or ineffectual.Although Heinberg arguably could be over egging the present effects of energy and resource shortages, the questions of environmental depletion and non-renewable resources in the long term easily trump all other considerations, especially in view of developing countries like China being able to consume more and more due to their manufacturing and exporting prowess. Therefore it is hard not to strongly agree with the central thesis of this book.But if elites in the West are going to abort a Keynesian style return to consumer led growth as the author seems to wish, and instead settle for an austere non-growth economy, I believe they have to offer the low income working population / unemployed more than a chance to grow their own food, join co-ops, and do odd jobs in return for local currency as a consolation prize! This is an incomplete caricature of the suggestions Heinberg puts forward, but it does illustrate a point. As we are now all too aware, austerity does not fall evenly upon the population, and a weakness of this green approach to the future is that in their ideas there is some, but not enough, consolation for the less skilled working person, who is and will bear the brunt of austerity.This is why I believe a certain kind of protectionism will inevitably make its way into rich country politics in the near future, to square this circle and tighten lower end labour markets within non-growing rich countries. (Although to be fair Heinberg does mention tariffs in a limited context "The adoption of a system of tariffs that would allow countries that implement sustainable policies to remain competitive in the global market place with countries that don't" p252). It should not be technologically ambitious protectionism which provokes resentment from other countries, and it should consider carefully questions of maintaining industry competition in relation to factors of scale and scope.

The End of Growth brings together the crises of Peak Oil, the climate and the financial crash to give a view of a world that cannot go on living beyond its limits. It should be required reading for every politician who talks about a return to 'steady growth'. The good news is that there are lots of things we can do to prepare for a radically different future. Start by reading this excellent book!

As it was repeated in the past and nowadays like a mantra that growth is necessarynow the new mantra is that there is something new lying ahead which cannot be avoided but has to be accepted. The conclusions are so obvious that it's strange to realize that nobody is taking consequences. An essential book.

Super read loved it

A reality check on the world today illustrating how we simply can not keep on consuming at will. Excellent book with clear thinking behind it and a very easy read on an often poorly understood concept. I recommend this.

It's an allegation for a new model of interaction with the natural resources: decrease as a paradigm for a resilient evolution

A must read for anyone wanting to know what is really going on

A lire pour réaliser que et pourquoi ça ne peux pas continuer 'comme d'habitude' sur notre planète. Une excellente analyse, claire et ouvert à tout discussions. Ce livre doit être lu obligatoirement par nos politiciens mais aussi par notre jeune génération.Très recommandable!

Heinberg bluntly states what the barriers of growth are in this book, where he takes no prisoners. The book covers most subjects relating to the topic, although he does not provide much depth in his analysis. However, if you're new to peak oil, limits to growth and related subjects this is a very, very good place to start.